On Strength

Zeke has been conducting an informal survey of marathon times versus mileage over the past few weeks and just posted the results. It's really interesting in that it shows an almost linear correlation between average weekly mileage run and marathon time improvement, that is, up to about 80 miles weekly average where the line begins to flatten out. The survey results depict graphically what many people know (even if we've never personally experienced it) to be true -- more miles equals better results. Although statisticians may quibble over the details, it's sufficient to alleviate whatever doubts I may have had about mileage.

However, I would note that the survye doesn't take into account a person's being on the so-called "improvement curve" as a new runner. In personal experience, my half-marathon time dropped over 15 minutes after 2 years of averaging about 20 miles a week. On the other hand, in a way this further illustrates Zeke's point that more mileage equals better results. The weekly view simply doesn't capture what was happening. Allow me to illustrate, although I was running 20 miles/week during my first half marathon build-up, my 3 year rolling average was much less:

• Year 1 = 0, Year 2 = 0 Year 2.0-2.5=0 Year 2.5-3.0= 20/week.
  
• That comes up to about 500 miles over three years--an average of about 3 miles per week for the period

In my second half-mary, the three year rolling average was more like:

• Year 1=15/week, Year 2=15/week, Year 3=20/week
  
• That comes up to about 2500 miles over three years -- a rolling average of about 16 miles per week for the period

So, even though weekly mileage didn't increase, leading into the second race my yearly average mileage was much, much higher. This is why the most successful marathoners are in their late 20's and 30's. It takes time to build up the yearly rolling average necessary to be a great marathoner.

Fascinating. This is a fantastic survey in that, if nothing else, it promises continued improvement over time for anyone willing to put in the effort to succeed. This is truly a sport that rewards the patient.

Week-in-Review

Monday	Tuesday	Wed.	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Total
Rest	10.7 miles	4.1 miles	11.3 miles	Rest	21 miles	6.75 miles	53.9
--	Tempo	7:39/m	7:46/m	--	7:43/m	7:47/m	--

This is my first week over 50 -- ever. However, in line with Zeke's survey, I can report some personal successes that I'd attribute to the increased mileage. In my first marathon training, wherein I averaged approximately 20 miles per week for the duration, my 21 mile run knocked me flat for 2 days. In this cycle, as you can see from this week, I followed up 21 with a relatively quick 6 and change the following day. Also, I find it encouraging that this 21 mile training run was faster than my marathon race pace during my last Mary. Some of that is due to starting training at what I peaked at the last time (30 miles/week). Some is due to having a few more years to build my rolling yearly average mileage. Hopefully these positive signs will carry forward. There are 11 weeks to go, and I'm itching to hit a fitness-gauge race to see where I am and what goals I should shoot for. I don't think my ability to hit the 3:10 BQ is in question, I'm wondering how far below that to aim. Although the Club Championship next week should give me some good information, I'm dying for Greta's Gallop Half Marathon, which is four weeks before the MCM and should give me a solid view of what I can expect. Can't wait!